Optimisation analysis and integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect

The issues surrounding the anticipated impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect are likely to form a significant part of the research activities in the coming years. In this paper we have adopted a control theoretic approach to the analysis of one of the world's best known integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect: the Dutch IMAGE 1.0 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model. The paper demonstrates that optimisation methodologies can be applied to integrated models to enhance their interpretative power. This is accomplished by providing a mechanism whereby optimal emission allocation strategies can be formulated from existing models. One result of particular interest is that the analysis confirms that the earlier human input into the climate system can be stabilised, the higher the levels of CO₂ emissions can be permitted and still achieve specific long-term environmental target.