城市碳达峰碳中和行动评估方法与应用

城市作为温室气体排放的重点单元，对实现国家碳达峰碳中和目标有着最直接根本的意义.为评估当前城市碳达峰碳中和表现，基于考虑决策者偏好的层次分析法，通过影响因素确定、指标遴选与赋分原则确定和指标赋权等步骤，开发了一套由3个准则层、7个要素层和14个具体指标层构成的城市碳达峰碳中和行动指数评估指标体系，形成相对全面科学的综合评估方法，全面评估城市在实现达峰中和目标中的政府态度和能力建设，在社会经济、能源消费、产业结构和绿色出行等方面的低碳状态及在减排效率与减排趋势上的实际成效.经对中心城市的评估应用结果发现，一线经济发达、低碳试点城市达峰中和综合表现更为突出，北京、深圳、武汉、上海、青岛、广州、成都、厦门、昆明和兰州综合得分均超过60分.各城市在双碳行动上各具特点，北京、厦门、宁波、深圳和青岛气候雄心显著，海口、广州、成都、南宁和北京低碳状态表现较好；昆明、兰州、洛阳、大庆和吉林等城市减排趋势表现显著.多数城市仍存在达峰意愿不足，统计信息披露制度欠缺等问题.未来可从完善指标体系、更新赋权和形成年度评估机制等方面优化评估方法.建议地方统筹全国一盘棋上下联动制定双碳工作方案，完善城市能源与温室气体统计与信息披露制度，组织有条件地区开展碳达峰试点建设工作.

Evaluation Method and Application for Urban Carbon Peaking & Neutrality Performance

As the key unit of greenhouse gas emission sources, cities have the most direct and fundamental significance to achieve the national carbon peaking carbon neutrality goal. In order to evaluate the current performance of urban carbon peaking and neutrality, a set of urban peaking and carbon neutrality action index evaluation systems consisting of three criterion layers, seven elements, and fourteen specific index layers were developed based on the analytic hierarchy process considering the preferences of decision makers, through the steps of influencing factor determination, indicator selection, and scoring principle determination, as well the indicator weightings. Thus, a relatively comprehensive scientific evaluation method was formed to fully evaluate the attitude of the government towards the goal of carbon peaking and neutrality, the state of social economy, energy consumption, industrial structure, transportation, and other aspects, as well as the actual effect of emission reduction efficiency and trends. Through the central city evaluation application study, it was found that the first-tier economically developed and low-carbon pilot cities had a more outstanding comprehensive performance in reaching the peak and neutrality. The comprehensive scores of Beijing, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Shanghai, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xiamen, Kunming, and Lanzhou all exceeded 60 points. Beijing, Xiamen, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Qingdao had significant climate ambitions, whereas Haikou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanning, and Beijing had a better low-carbon status. Kunming, Lanzhou, Luoyang, Daqing, Jilin, and other cities showed significant emission reduction trends. Most cities still had problems such as insufficient willingness to reach the peak and lack of statistical information disclosure system. The evaluation method could be optimized by improving the index system, updating the empowerment, and forming the annual evaluation mechanism next step. It is suggested to formulate the local carbon reduction work plan by coordinating the whole country at different levels, improve the urban energy and greenhouse gas statistics and information disclosure system, and organize the carbon peaking pilot construction in areas where conditions permit.