基于不同电力需求的中国减污降碳协同增效路径

当前我国同时面临改善生态环境质量和实现碳达峰碳中和两大战略任务，协同推进减污降碳已成为我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的必然选择，电力部门在转型过程中将发挥重要作用.面向不同的电力需求情景，构建低成本实现碳达峰、碳中和的多目标模型，求解得出减污降碳协同增效最优路径方案.结果表明，在如期实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的前提下，减污和降碳协同性较好，两者协同控制可高效助力低碳转型的实现；优化电力部门发电结构是实现减污降碳协同增效的关键措施，研究期火电占比不断下降，清洁电力占比超过92.5%;不同电力需求下二氧化碳和主要大气污染物排放量有明显差异，其中二氧化碳排放量受电力需求影响最大，低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求情景下峰值二氧化碳排放量分别为94.16亿、 104.09亿和107.46亿t,主要污染物二氧化硫、氮氧化物和颗粒物的排放同样表现出在低电力需求、中等电力需求和高电力需求情景下依次递增的趋势.电力需求的提高仅增加了电力部门内部发电结构调整的压力，未影响到其他部门的产量和活动水平，即电力需求导致的电力部门减排压力未表现出部门间传递的趋势.

Synergistic Paths of Reduced Pollution and Carbon Emissions Based on Different Power Demands in China

Nowadays, China is faced with two strategic tasks:improving ecological environmental quality and realizing carbon neutrality and carbon peaking. Synergy to reduce pollution and carbon emissions has become an inevitable choice for the comprehensive green transition of economic and social development in China. The electric power sector will play an important role in the transition process. Based on different power demand scenarios, a multi-objective model was constructed to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality at a low cost, and the optimal path scheme of carbon emission reduction synergy was obtained. The results showed that under the premise of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as scheduled, pollution reduction and carbon reduction had good synergies, and their synergistic control could effectively facilitate the realization of the low-carbon transition. Optimizing the power generation structure of the electric power sector was the key measure to achieving the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. During the study period, the proportion of thermal power decreased continuously, and the proportion of clean power exceeded 92.5%. The emissions of carbon dioxide and major air pollutants were significantly different under different power demands. Carbon dioxide emissions were most affected by power demand. The peak carbon dioxide emissions under low power demand, medium power demand, and high power demand were 9.416 billion, 10.409 billion, and 10.746 billion t, respectively. The emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter also showed an increasing trend in the low power demand, medium power demand, and high power demand scenarios. The increase in power demand only increased the pressure of power generation structure adjustment within the electric power sector, without affecting the output and activity level of other sectors, that is, the pressure of emission reduction in the electric power sector caused by power demand did not show the trend of transmission between sectors.