Simulating impacts,potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India |
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Authors: | Kattarkandi Byjesh Soora Naresh Kumar Pramod Kumar Aggarwal |
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Institution: | (1) Division of Environmental Sciences, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012, India |
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Abstract: | Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound
implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in country’s food security. Thus, it is important
to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate
potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing
the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold.
First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased
rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature
in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain
(UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation
in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal
variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions.
In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP
yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar
to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability
of maize production in India. |
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