产业关联水平对碳排放演化的影响机理及效应研究——基于欧盟27国投入产出数据的实证分析

碳排放逐步升高是以工业化为特征的区域经济崛起的必然结果。论文的理论研究说明,产业关联水平反映了区域发展过程中产业多样化和分工细化的程度,相较于产业结构,产业关联水平对区域经济发展水平的指示意义更深刻。那么,产业关联水平对碳排放的影响特征及其趋势将更接近于碳排放在经济发展驱动下的演进规律。因此,论文采用欧盟27国投入产出数据,在测算不同类型制造业和服务业的产业关联水平的基础上,确定不同类型制造业所对应的特征服务业类型,进而应用经济计量学工具对制造业与服务业产业关联度对碳排放的影响进行实证分析,结果显示：第一,作为发达经济体,欧盟的制造业与服务业整体间产业关联度对碳排放具有显著负效应;第二,低端、中端和高端制造业与各自对应特征服务业类型间产业关联度对碳排放的影响均较为显著,其强度呈现随制造业水平升级而先上升、后下降的趋势;第三,高端制造业与生产性、分配性服务业间产业关联度的提高是实现区域碳排放达到峰值并逐步下降的重要动力,而中端制造业与其对应特征服务业关联度提升对碳排放的正向效应将高于低端制造业主导时期。因此,结合发达经济体的发展经验可以发现,碳排放的演化具有规律性特征,而以产业关联度入手的分析能够提供操作性更强的参考。目前,中国应在推动产业结构升级结构的过程中,大力提升生产性服务业的发展水平及其与制造业的关联水平,并采取积极措施降低交通运输业等分配性服务业的能耗强度。

The Impact of Industrial Relevancy on Regional Carbon Emission: Empirical Analysis Based on the Input-output Data of EU Countries

Carbon emission is the inevitable result of development. With the changes of extensive development to intensive development, is there a peak of carbon emission? And if the peak does exist, when it would appear? The answers of above questions are directly related to the distribution principle and equity of global carbon quotas. The industrial correlation, which is the inherent driving force of the upgrade of economic structure, can demonstrate the stage of regional economic development. This paper utilized theoretical and empirical analysis and concluded that the pattern of carbon emission is an inverted-U shape (Carbon Emission Baseline, CEB). The empirical study of this paper shows: the 1% increase in correlation between high-end manufacturing sector and productive service sector and between high-end manufacturing sector and distributive service sector will cause 3.63% and 5.57% decrease of regional carbon emission, respectively; the 1% increase of correlation between middle-end manufacturing sector and productive service sector and between middle-end manufacturing sector and distributive service sector will result in 7.05% decline and 0.57% growth of regional carbon dioxide emission, respectively; the 1% increase of correlation degree between low-end manufacturing sector and distributive services sector and between low-end manufacturing sector and distributive service sector will bring 4.55% and 10.43% increase in regional carbon emissions, respectively. Therefore, in the initial stage of economic development, the high association between low-end manufacturing and services sectors would have positive effect on carbon emissions; when it came to the period of industrialization, although the dominant industries were slightly different, the overall carbon emissions increased significantly; when economic development entered the mature stage, the high-end manufacturing associations would continue exerting negative effect on carbon emissions, and the regional carbon emissions would demonstrate decline trend. This pattern suggests that if a region is still in the stage of low-end manufacturing and services, this region has rights to keep emission increasing to sustain the basic development. Therefore, CEB not only gives a shape of emission, but also provides a standard relationship between the evolution of emission and economic development. On this level, CEB has potential to be a complement principle of global carbon apportion.