三峡水库运行后荆南三口地区水资源安全状态及归因分析

论文基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）概念模型,建立荆南三口地区水资源安全评价指标体系,运用熵权模糊综合评价法评判该地区2000—2015年的水资源安全状态且以Ⅰ~Ⅴ等级来表征水资源安全由弱到强的状态,并运用因子分析法分析水资源安全状态变化的动因。结果表明：在2000—2015年间三口地区整体水资源安全的综合评价结果以Ⅲ等级占主导,为整体评价结果的45.83%,尚处在中间水平,并在时空上呈现出明显的阶段性变化：1）从时间上看,华容县水资源安全状态从2000年的Ⅱ等级上升到2015年的Ⅴ等级,其水资源安全隶属度整体上由低等级向高等级过渡;而安乡县水资源安全状态在2000—2002年处于Ⅳ~Ⅴ等级,三峡水库运行后下降到Ⅲ等级,且在各个等级上其水资源的安全隶属度变化幅度小,高等级增长缓慢;南县水资源安全状态在此期间波动幅度较大,2000—2002年从Ⅲ等级下降到Ⅱ等级,2003年后又缓慢上升到Ⅲ等级,但在2010后其水资源安全状态从Ⅱ等级下降到Ⅰ等级,并在2011—2013年连续3 a处于Ⅰ等级状态,其水资源安全隶属度在三峡水库运行后波动较大,主要向低等级方向移动。2）从空间上看,三峡水库运行前荆南三口地区水资源安全状态由高到低排序为安乡县>南县>华容县,三峡水库运行初期水资源安全状态的高低排序为安乡县>华容县>南县;试验性运行期为华容县>安乡县>南县。3）人类经济活动与供水能力是影响三口地区水资源安全的主要贡献因子,方差贡献率分别为26.758%与25.587%;而气候与人口因素为次要贡献因子,方差贡献率分别为16.240%与15.469%。

Water Resources Security Status Alteration and Its Attribution Analysis in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River after the Operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Based on the concept of driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model, an evaluation index system for water resources safety in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang River was established, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on entropy weight is carried out on water security status in this region during 2000-2015. Based on the factor analysis method, the changes of water security status in the region was analyzed. The results showed that: during the period 2000-2015, the overall water resources security in the three outlets was dominated by the Grade Ⅲ, accounting for 45.83%, which was still in the middle level. Water resources security showed a significant spatial and temporal variations. 1) From the perspective of time, water security status in Huarong County increased from Grade Ⅱ in 2000 to Grade Ⅴ in 2015, and the degree of membership to high levels became higher and to low levels became lower in general; water security status in Anxiang were Grade Ⅳ-Ⅴ during 2000-2002 and dropped to Grade Ⅲ after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, but the change of membership degree to each level was small, and the growth of membership degree to high levels was slow. During this period, water security status in Nanxian County fluctuated most intensely. It dropped from Grade Ⅲ to Grade Ⅱ during 2000-2002 and slowly rose to Grade Ⅲ again after 2003. However, after 2010, its state of water resources safety fell from Grade Ⅱ to Grade Ⅰ and remained at Grade Ⅰ for three consecutive years during 2011-2013. After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the water resources security degree in Nanxian County fluctuated greatly and mainly moved from high level to low level. 2) From the perspective of space, before the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, water security status in the three outlets ranked from high to low was Anxiang, Nanxian and Huarong. In the initial operation period, the order was Anxiang, Huarong and Nanxian. In the trial operation period, it was Huarong, Anxiang and Nanxian. 3) Human economic activity and water supply capacity were the main contributing factors that affected the water resources security in the three outlets, whose variance contribution rates were 26.758% and 25.587%, respectively. The climate and population factors were the secondary factors, whose variance contribution rates were 16.240% and 15.469%, respectively.