基于水量变化的塔里木河统一管理成效评价

为科学明确评价塔里木河统一管理成效,论文基于源流及干流的来水与耗水量数据,利用非参数检验、周期叠加模型等构建人类活动对源流区水量影响分离模型,进而结合距平百分比和变异系数等参数,对比分析统一管理措施对塔里木河利用管理水平的影响,结果表明：1）人类活动对源流区水资源的影响程度在1994—2001、2002—2010、2011—2013年呈减弱趋势,流域过度引水的现象得到一定的好转,源流区水资源利用水平和管理效能提高;2）实施统一管理后,干流来水保证度提高,干流来水距平百分比的变异系数由-4.67减小至0.33,源流与干流来水距平百分比差异的平均值由-19.6%变为-4.9%,且源流干流来水差异值累积距平曲线由上升转为下降,源流和干流来水的波动性减弱,尤其是干流来水波动性要弱于源流,同时源流及干流来水更具协调性,管理部门对塔里木河径流的调度和管控能力明显提升,统一管理成效显著。

Effectiveness Evaluation of the Unified Management Based on Water Change in Tarim River Basin

To clarify the effectiveness of the unified management of the Tarim River, the impacts of human activities on water resources and runoff in the source area and mainstream were analyzed based on the runoff and water consumption data of source area and main stream. The methods of nonparametric tests, periodic superposition model, anomaly and coefficient of variation were used. The results showed that: 1) The impact of human activities on water in source area decreased after the implementation of integrated management (2001) and unified management measures (2010). Compared with climate change, the influence of human activities on the water source in source area became weaker, and the phenomenon of excessive water diversion in the river basin has been improved. 2) After the implementation of unified management, the difference of the coefficient of variation of anomaly percentage of the runoff in the headstream and mainstream reduced from 6.63 to 0.24. The average value of anomaly percentage difference changed from -19.6% to -4.9%. The curve of cumulative anomaly of runoff difference between headstream and mainstream rose at first and then fell down. The fluctuation of runoff in the headstream and mainstream decreased, especially the mainstream, and the coordination of runoff became stronger. The results indicated that after the implementation of the unified management, man-made diversion has been effectively controlled; the ability of managing and controlling the runoff of the river has been significantly improved; and unified management has achieved remarkable results.