1977-2017年萨吾尔山冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应

利用1977年MSS和1989年、1998年、2006年TM及2017年OLI/TIRS遥感影像资料,通过目视解译和GIS技术,提取萨吾尔山地区五个时期的冰川信息,同时对研究区周边气温降水的趋势性和周期性进行分析,探讨该地区最近40年冰川对气候变化的响应。研究表明： （1）1977-2017年,研究区冰川总面积减小了10.51 km²,退缩45.72%,退缩速率为1.14%·a^-1,且冰川处于加速退缩阶段;（2）冰川规模越小,退缩越快;（3）南坡退缩速度最快,东南坡和西南坡次之,东北坡退缩最慢,冰川退缩率在5°~40°坡度大体呈现随坡度增大而增加的趋势;（4）研究区正处于气温上升期,降水增加期,降水量增加幅度不能弥补由气温升高造成的冰川消融,引起冰川退缩速率不断加快;（5）与其他因素主导区域的冰川相比,研究区冰川退缩率较高,面积较小的冰川占比较多是形成这一结果的另一因素。

Glacier changes in the Sawuer Mountain during 1977-2017 and their response to climate change

The Sawuer Mountain spans the two countries between China and Kazakhstan and is the transitional section between the Tianshan Mountains and the central Altay Mountains. This mountain range is not only the most obvious watershed for the inland and Arctic sea systems in Xinjiang, but also the highest mountain in the northernmost part of the western Junggar Basin. Muz Taw Mountain is the main peak of the Sawuer Mountain and Muz Taw Glacier in the peak is the most important tourist resource in Jimunai county. The northern slope of the study area runs through a glacier snow-fed river, the Ulejkururasu River, which is also a boundary river between China and Kazakhstan. Glaciers, as the alpine solid reservoir, whose river runoff by ablation plays a very important role in the survival and development of agriculture and livestock husbandry in the middle and lower reaches of arid regions. Meanwhile, glaciers also affect the sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in a large extent. Therefore, it is possible to predict future changes in the glacier and the future development of the area affected by the glacier via understanding the changing trends of glaciers and their response to climate change. Based on the Landsat 1977 MSS, 1989 TM, 1998 TM, 2006 TM and 2017 OLI / TIRS remote sensing image data, the glacier information of five periods in the Uighur region was extracted by visual interpretation and GIS technology. The trend and periodicity of temperature and precipitation were analyzed to investigate the response of the glaciers to climate change in recent 40 years in the region. The results show that: (1) From 1977 to 2017, the total glacier area in the study region decreased by 10.51 km², retreating by 45.72%, and the retreat rate was 1.14%·a^-1, with the glacier retreating at an accelerating stage. (2) The smaller the glacier scale, the faster the retreat speed; (3) The south slope retreats fastest, followed by the southeast slope and the southwest slope, and the slowest retreat is in the northeast slope, and the gradient of the glacier shrinkage at 5°-40° generally shows a trend of increasing with the increase of the slope; (4) The study region is in the period of temperature rise and precipitation increase, and the increase of precipitation cannot make up for the glacier ablation caused by the temperature increase, leading to the accelerating retreating rate of glacier. (5) Compared with the glaciers dominated by other factors, the glacier retreats. More glaciers with higher retreat rates and smaller areas is another factor in forming this result.