“丝绸之路经济带”在世界石油供给格局中的地位及演变

推进能源合作是“丝绸之路经济带”（下称“经济带”）建设的核心和战略突破口。鉴于现有研究对经济带内的石油资源储、产、消、贸情况少有系统分析,文章采用箱线图分析法,探讨经济带内主要产油国的相对供给位序及其在世界石油供给格局中的地位与演变,并结合各国石油供需平衡状况的变化,提出我国与带内主要国家开展石油合作的对策建议。结果表明：1）经济带无论是在石油储量、产量、储采比还是出口量上,均居世界前列,是世界石油供给增长的主源地;2）经济带内以大中型以上石油供给国居多,且呈高度集聚态势,形成波斯湾沿岸供给极核和环里海“俄罗斯-哈萨克斯坦-阿塞拜疆”供给金三角,特别是环里海地区增长势头强劲,与波斯湾地区的供给差距有所缩小;3）经济带内的石油生产和出口波动非常明显,主要是受地区局势变化、OPEC产量调控以及供给国内部需求波动的影响;4）未来我国仍应以波斯湾沿岸国家作为带内石油合作的主要对象,并在该地区进一步推进来源地多元化战略;环里海地区是我国另一大战略合作地区,近期应以石油运输基础设施合作为基石,并逐步构筑“俄罗斯-哈萨克斯坦-阿塞拜疆”合作金三角,对冲合作风险;5）中印两国应加强合作,共同增强地区石油议价话语权,提高地区石油运输安全性。

The Status of Silk Road Economic Belt in the World Oil Supply Pattern and Its Evolution

Promoting energy cooperation is the core and the strategic breakthrough of constructing Silk Road Economic Belt. Since it lacks of systematic analysis of the reserves, production, consumption and trade of oil resources in the Silk Road Economic Belt, this paper adopts boxplot analysis method to discuss the ranks of the main oil-producing countries in the economic belt in the world oil supply and their changes. Combining with their changing statues in oil supply-demand balance, this paper makes suggestions regarding China’s oil cooperation with main oil-producing countries in the belt. Results suggest that: 1) As to either the proven reserves, productions, R/P or exports, the economic belt is on top of the world, and is the primary sources of world’s oil supply growth; even in the diversified trend of world’s proven oil reserves and R/P, the status of the economic belt is still strong and outstanding, and in further polarized trend of world’s oil production and export, the leading superiority of Saudi Arabia and Russia is more prominent. 2) Most oil supply countries in the belt are large and medium sized countries, and are highly clustered, forming a core area along Persian Gulf and the Golden Triangle of “Russia-Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan” surrounding Caspian Sea, especially the region surrounding Caspian Sea where the strong growth has narrowed the its gap with the Persian Gulf region; the cluster of oil super supplies plays regional advantages for oil exporting countries to share regional energy infrastructures, and for oil importing countries to have more cooperation choices. 3) There are obvious fluctuations of oil production and exports, which are mainly affected by the changes of regional situation, OPEC production regulation and the fluctuations of domestic demands in oil supplying countries. 4) In the future, China should continue to take Persian Gulf countries as the major partners, and diversify the origins of oil; region surrounding Caspian Sea is another big strategic cooperator of China, where the emphasis should be focused on the cooperative construction of oil transport infrastructure; China should gradually construct a Golden Cooperation Triangle consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to hedge the risk in cooperation. 5) The cooperation between China and India also needs to be strengthened in order to enhance the regional power in barging, and improve the regional oil transportation safety.