中国土地流转的时空演变特征及影响因素研究

为了在全国尺度上全面了解中国的土地流转发展状况及其影响因素,论文在详细分析中国土地流转时空演变特征的基础上,利用因子分析方法在省级尺度对影响土地流转的因素进行了归纳和提取。结果表明：1）当前中国土地流转发展迅速,2007—2015年,中国土地流转率由5.2%增至33.3%。但土地流转程度区域差异明显,南部与西部地区流转较慢,规模较小,平原地区流转较快,规模较大。2）土地流转对规模经营（经营规模>3.33 hm²）的促进效果尚不明显,中国规模经营比例仍然偏低,经营规模在3.33 hm²以上的农户仅有1.42%。3）土地资源禀赋、经济发展水平、流转交易成本、地权稳定程度、农户流转意愿和交通通达性等方面因素是影响中国土地流转发展的主要因素。4）土地流转条件成熟程度存在区域差异,黑龙江、内蒙古、吉林最高,贵州、云南、广西最低。政策启示是：交易成本过高阻碍了土地流转效果的实现,土地细碎化是导致交易成本增加的重要原因,进行农地制度改革,推动农地承包权在一定区域范围内流转,可以促进细碎地块的集中,有效降低流转的交易成本,有效地提高农户的耕地经营规模。同时,在制定政策推动土地流转时,还应重视土地流转条件成熟程度和土地流转主要限制因素的区域差异,分区制定政策解决影响土地流转的障碍,鼓励适合当地的适度规模经营。

Spatial-temporal Variations and Influential Factors of Land Transfer in China

Improving the efficiency of agricultural production and developing moderate scale management are the directions of China's agricultural development at present, and land transfer is the main way to realize the scale management of land in China in the system of collective ownership. Based on detailed analysis of spatial-temporal variation characteristics of land transfer in China, this paper used factor analysis method to explore the factors affecting land transfer at the provincial scale. The results showed that: 1) At present, China's land transfer is developing rapidly, but the regional differences are obvious. The land transfer rate increased rapidly from 5.2% in 2007 to 33.3% in 2015. In 2007, only 4 million hectares of cultivated land were transferred. In 2015, 30 million hectares of cultivated land were involved in land transfer. The scale of land transfer increased by 6 times in 8 years, and 3 million hectares of cultivated land were added to the land transfer process every year. The southern and western regions have slower transfer speed and smaller transfer scale, while the transfer speed is much faster and the scale is much larger in plains. 2) The promotion effect of land transfer on scale management (management scale > 3.33 hm²) is not obvious yet. The ratio of scale management is still at a low level that only 1.42% famers have management scale bigger than 3.33 hm², and the management scale of cultivated land of 80% farmers is below 0.67 hm². The fragmentation of land has a great hindrance to the realization of the land transfer effects. 3) Land resource endowment, economic development level, transfer transaction cost, land ownership stability, peasant households' willingness of land transfer and traffic accessibility are the most important factors that affect the development of land transfer. Land resource endowment, economic development level and land ownership stability are positively related to land transfer, and transaction cost is negatively related to land transfer. 4) There exist regional differences of the maturity of land transfer conditions in China. Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Jilin have the highest maturity of land transfer conditions, and the maturity of land transfer conditions in Guizhou, Yunnan and Guangxi are the lowest. There are policy implications that the high transaction cost in China hinders the realization of land transfer effect and land fragmentation is an important cause of the increase of transaction costs. Carrying out the reform of the rural land system and promoting the farmland contracting rights in a certain area can promote the concentration of small plots, effectively reduce the transaction costs of land transfer and increase the scale of farmers' land management. At the same time, the regional differences of the maturity of land transfer conditions and the major limiting factors of land transfer should be paid attention in the formulation of policies that promote land transfer. Policies should be formulated by regions to solve the land transfer barriers, and moderate scale management fit for local condition should be encouraged.