基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。

Early-warning of Urban Vulnerability in Tangshan CityBased on Variable Weight Model

At present, cities in China face highly and rapidly increasing exposure to risks of resource, environment, society and economy, calling for effective countermeasures to solve the problem. Urban vulnerability reflects the ability of city system to resist the disturbances from resources, ecological environment, economic and social development, and other internal and external factors. When the ability to resist disturbance is lower than a certain threshold value, the city will be vulnerable. Urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning is an important content of urban vulnerability research. The paper selected Tangshan City as the study region, and constructed an urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning index system by employing “Ecology-Environment-Economy-Society” (EEES) framework. It introduced the variable weight to estimate the early-warning level of urban vulnerability of Tangshan City from 2000 to 2014. And the Grey System GM (1,1) forecast model was used to predict the urban vulnerability trend of the city from 2015 to 2020. The results indicated that the variable weight model could meet needs of urban vulnerability evaluation and early-warning. The level of urban vulnerability showed an upward trend in Tangshan City during the past 15 years, the index growing from 0.449 to 0.716, the warning degree descending from “serious alert” to “light alert”, and the indicator lamp turning from “orange light” to “blue light”. From 2015 to 2020, the urban vulnerability warning level is predicated to turn from the “light alarm” to “no alert”, and the lamp will turn from “blue light” into “green light”. However, the urban vulnerability situation is still not optimistic. We still need to take precautionary measures to prevent vulnerability risk. These findings could provide scientific basis for the urban vulnerability assessment, and provide policy support for the improvement of the urban vulnerability of Tangshan.