Assessment of future climate change impacts on water-heat-salt migration in unsaturated frozen soil using CoupModel

? A model coupling water-heat-salt of unsaturated frozen soil was established. ? Future temperature, precipitation, and evaporation increase in freeze–thaw period. ? Soil water, heat, and salt transport are closely coupled during freeze–thaw period. ? Freeze–thaw cycles and future climate change can exacerbate salinization. The transport mechanisms of water, heat, and salt in unsaturated frozen soil, as well as its response to future climate change are in urgent need of study. In this study, western Jilin Province in north-eastern China was studied to produce a model of coupled water-heat-salt in unsaturated frozen soil using CoupModel. The water, heat, and salt dynamics of unsaturated frozen soil under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were simulated to analyze the effects of future climate change on unsaturated frozen soil. The results show that water, heat, and salt migration are tightly coupled, and the soil salt concentration in the surface layer (10 cm) exhibits explosive growth after freezing and thawing. The future (2020–2099) meteorological factors in the study area were predicted using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). For RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, future temperatures during the freeze–thaw period increased by 2.68°C, 3.18°C, and 4.28°C, respectively; precipitation increased by 30.28 mm, 28.41 mm, and 32.17 mm, respectively; and evaporation increased by 93.57 mm, 106.95 mm, and 130.57 mm, respectively. Climate change will shorten the freeze–thaw period, advance the soil melting time from April to March, and enhance water and salt transport. Compared to the baseline period (1961–2005), future soil salt concentrations at 10 cm increased by 1547.54 mg/L, 1762.86 mg/L, and 1713.66 mg/L under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. The explosive salt accumulation is more obvious. Effective measures should be taken to prevent the salinization of unsaturated frozen soils and address climate change.