基于模糊集和改进TOPSIS方法的跑道侵入风险评估

为预防民航机场跑道侵入事件的发生,减轻塔台管制员面临的跑道运行安全的压力,根据国际民航组织(ICAO)颁布的《防止跑道侵入手册》描述的空中交通管制(ATC)因素,建立影响跑道侵入的ATC指标评价体系。首先运用模糊集理论建立评价模型,并计算子指标的模糊可能性值,其值反映所论子指标风险概率。其次,采用改进的TOPSIS方法进行验证,并计算子指标的信度效度值。结果表明,得出的子指标风险值与模糊可能性值的排序一致。最后,根据子指标风险值的大小提出防止跑道侵入事件发生的建议。

Runway Incursion Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Sets Theory and Improved TOPSIS Method

In order to prevent civil aviation airport's runway incursion accidents and reduce the pressure on the tower controllers,which comes from civil aviation airport's runway safety operation,an ATC evaluation system of indexes influencing runway incursion was established,according to the control traffic control factors described in the Manual on the Prevention of Runway Incursions published by ICAO.Firstly,an evalution model was built using fuzzy set theory.Fuzzy probability values of subindexes were calculated,these values each reflect the risk of each subindex.Secondly,the reliability and validity values of subindexes were calculated using improved TOPSIS metod.The results show that there is no diference between the sequence of the risk probabilities of subindexes and that of their fuzzy probabilities.Lastly,recommendations for preventing runway incursion accidents were put forward.