基于ARDL方法的江苏省资源利用与经济增长

资源利用与经济增长间的关系是资源与环境经济学研究的重要领域.目前国内外研究主要集中于探讨能源消费与经济增长间的因果关系，而未对区域资源总体投入与经济产出的关系开展实证研究.以江苏省为例，首次尝试运用物质流分析法以及最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)，对江苏省1990—2007年资源利用和实际GDP的因果关系进行检验和分析.采用了物质流分析指标中直接物质投入来表征区域资源利用量.ARDL边界检验结果表明，资源利用和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系.进一步因果检验表明，二者间存在着从资源利用到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系，反映出资源投入在一定程度上拉动了江苏经济增长.同时，对江苏省经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议. 

Analysis of Relationship between Resource Use and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The relationship between resource use and economic growth is a key area of study in Resource and Environmental Economics.Although a great deal of studies in China and internationally have been conducted on the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth,few results from empirical studies are available for causality between total resource use and aggregate output.This paper attempts,for the first time,to integrate the Material Flow Analysis (MFA) approach and the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach to examine the causal relationship between resource use and real GDP for Jiangsu Province over the period 1990-2007.We also use the proxy of resource use,namely direct material input (DMI),a sub-account of MFA.The results of the ARDL bounds test indicate that there is a stable long-term balanced relationship between resource use and economic growth.The results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional Granger causal flow running from resource use to economic growth,which suggests that resource use spurs economic growth in Jiangsu Province.The estimation results also have policy implications for economic development and resource conservation strategies for Jiangsu Province.