环境风险评价中泄漏类重大事故的筛选研究

提出了采用"风险排序,以平均风险指数为尺度"来筛选项目中泄漏类重大事故的方法。该方法是对工业事故风险评估方法(ARAMIS)采用的风险严重度指数法的修正和应用范围的推广。借助已有事故发生的概率统计值,对所引概率进行修正,用Risk System预测得到的半致死浓度范围表征事故的后果。基于概率与后果提出风险指数概念,对各事故风险排序;以平均风险指数为尺度筛选出重大事故。采用该方法对某化工项目环境风险评价中重大事故进行了筛选,此方法与修正前的方法计算的结果一致。方法简单易行,为定量确定单个项目中泄漏类重大事故提供了依据。

A STUDY FOR SCREENING MAJOR LEAKAGE ACCIDENTS IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENT

It was proposed a way to screen major leakage accidents in a given plant by risk ranking and average risk index.This method was based on the amendment and extension of the risk severity index used by accident risk assesment method for industries project(ARAMIS).With the existing probability of the accident statistics,an amendment was done on the cited probability and then view the range of the median lethal concentration as the consequences of the accident predicted by Risk System.Using the concept of risk index to make a rank of accidents based on the probability and consequences,major accidents were screened by the average risk index.An application of the method was done in the environmental risk assessment for a gieven chemical plant.The results computed by the method agreed with those of ARAMIS.This method is simple and provides a basis for quantitatively screening the major leakage accidents in a given project.