基于层次分析-贝叶斯网络的社区配电网风险动态综合评估方法

社区配电网风险评估是当前研究的热点。传统的风险评估方法偏重于静态评估,难以反映社区配电网风险的实时动态变化。针对该问题,提出一种基于层次分析-贝叶斯网络的社区配电网风险动态综合评估方法。该方法首先结合层次分析法与专家知识建立社区配电网运行风险水平和供电风险水平的评估指标体系;然后,利用社区配电网的历史数据构建评价指标权重的贝叶斯网络,实现了风险评估指标权重的动态计算;最后,利用模糊综合评价方法将评价指标体系与其动态权重相结合,实现对社区配电网风险水平的主客观综合评估。实例应用结果表明:所提出的社区配电网风险动态综合评估方法有效地融合了专家经验与贝叶斯网络学习方法的优点,可实现对社区配电网风险的实时动态综合评估。

Dynamic Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method of Community Power Distribution Network Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Networks

Risk assessment of community power distribution network is a hot topic.The traditional risk assessment method focuses on static assessment,which can hardly to reflect the real-time dynamic change of community power distribution network risk.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a dynamic and comprehensive evaluation method for community power distribution network risk based on hierarchical analysis-Bayesian network.The paper combines the analytic hierarchy process with expert knowledge to establish an evaluation index system of operation risk and power supply risk level of community power distribution network.And the paper applies the historical data of the community power distribution network to constructing the Bayesian network of evaluation indicators to realize the dynamic calculation of the index weights.Finally,the paper uses the method of comprehensive evaluation to combine the evaluation index system with the dynamic weight of evaluation index to realize the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation of community power distribution network risk.The results show that the proposed community distribution network risk assessment method integrates the advantages of expert experience and Bayesian network learning method effectively,and realizes the real-time dynamic comprehensive assessment of community power distribution network risk.