“一带一路”倡议背景下哈萨克斯坦地区综合脆弱性的空间分异特征分析

系统评估沿线国家环境社会系统的发展状态,识别典型地区的脆弱性特征,对于绿色“一带一路”建设至关重要。本文集成了脆弱性与恢复力的概念内涵,构建了综合脆弱性评价指标体系,利用TOPSIS法和障碍度模型对哈萨克斯坦各州的综合脆弱性进行系统评价,分析其空间分异特征和影响因素。结果显示:①哈萨克斯坦综合脆弱性总体上处于中度水平,空间上呈现西高东低的特点,西部各要素脆弱性均处于中高位,东部整体脆弱性相对较低,中部则呈现多样性特征;②要素间关系复杂,脆弱性降低的瓶颈因素主要集中在资源使用和保障、社会系统保障等方面;③系统提升哈萨克斯坦环境社会系统的韧性,需要强化产业结构转型、基础设施建设与生态环境保护,在这些方面中国可以提供强有力的合作条件与经验。

Spatial Vulnerability Analysis of Kazakhstan Under the Background of the Belt and Road Initiative

Systematically evaluating the development status of environmental and social systems and identifying the vulnerability characteristics of typical areas are very essential to promote the Belt and Road Initiative.In this paper,the concept of comprehensive vulnerability was established by combing vulnerability and resilience.The index system was developed based on principle of“exposuresensitivity-resilience”criterion,which then used to evaluate the Kazakhstan.The TOPSIS model and obstacle model were used to evaluate and identify key factors under GIS platform.The results show that the comprehensive vulnerability in Kazakhstan is at moderate level with an obvious spatial difference,namely,higher in the west but lower in the east.Besides,sub-factors have diversified interrelationships,among which there is a negative correlation between social and ecological elements.In the western region,all the factors are categorized in the high value area of vulnerability,while the eastern region shows better and the central region a varied distribution.These results are very informative to Sino-Kazakhstan cooperation,with special focus on transformation of industrial structure,diversified trade of energy and food,infrastructure construction,as well ecological environment protection and new energy development.