山区线性工程地质灾害风险动态评价方法及应用

线性工程的路线长(如输变电、道路、管线工程等),特别是在地质环境条件复杂的山区,工程建设及运营期间遭受地质灾害威胁的风险大,防范管理的难度大,进行动态评价是防范风险的有效途径,也将是今后研究的主要趋势。结合藏中电力联网输变电工程地质灾害风险管理,提出了基于InSAR监测技术、考虑斜坡活动性的地质灾害风险动态评价方法。该方法构建了考虑斜坡活动性的危险性评价指标体系,建立了可以动态更新的加权信息量评价模型,针对电网工程输电塔位这一核心易损目标,初步实现了山区线性工程地质灾害风险动态评价,最后采用历史灾害分布和ROC曲线对比验证了评价方法的可行性,对于山区线性工程建设风险管理具有推广应用价值。

Dynamic Risk Assessment Method of Geological Hazard of Linear Engineering in Mountainous Area and Its Application

Because of the long distance of linear engineering, especially in the mountainous areas with complex geological conditions, the risk of geological hazards during the construction and operation of such projects is great. Thus risk prevention and management is very difficult. Under these circumstances, dynamic evaluation is an effective way to prevent risk, and it is also the main trend of future research. In order to prevent the geological hazard risk of Power Grid Engineering in Tibet, this paper proposes a dynamic evaluation method of geological hazard risk based on InSAR monitoring technology and considering the stability of slopes. This method constructs a risk assessment index system for slope activity, and a weighted information evaluation model for dynamic updating is established. Considering the core vulnerable target of transmission tower position in Power Grid Engineering, the risk dynamic evaluation of linear engineering geological hazard in mountainous area is preliminarily realized. Finally, the comparison of historical disaster distribution and ROC curve is used to verify the feasibility of the evaluation method. The results can be applied to the dynamic management of the risk of linear engineering construction in mountainous areas.