| Abstract: | The level of water demand for supplemental irrigation and the impact of such demand on water supplies were estimated, as a function of the price of corn (Zea Mays L.). The method of estimation was based on an economic analysis of irrigation practice which assumed constant irrigation costs, profit maximizing behavior on the part of irrigators, and which was deliberately structured to underestimate the level of irrigation water use. The analysis was applied to and used data from the Little Wabash basin in Illinois. No irrigation was predicted at a corn price below $3.50 per bushel. Between $3.50 and about $6.50 per bushel, irrigation was estimated to be profitable for a small region of the basin where acceptable groundwater was available. Above about $6.50 to $7.50, irrigation was found to be profitable in the remainder of the basin, where impoundment storage was required. The potential impact on the water resources of the basin is significant. For a corn price between $3.50 and about $6.50, the probability of a shortfall, defined as the event where the potential demand exceeds the supply, was estimated to be between 2 percent and 20 percent during the growing season. Above about $7.50, this probability was found to be about one-third. The development of policies to control withdrawals for irrigation and other uses is endorsed. |
