山东省碳减排系统仿真及政策优化研究

为考察减排政策对能源消耗及碳排放的影响,以经济、能源、人口和环境要素构建山东省能源消耗碳排放系统仿真模型.在验证模型有效性的基础上,进行单维度情景与多维度综合情景仿真模拟.结果 显示:在设定情景参数下,产业结构、科技投入与能源结构调整能够有效促进碳减排,但减排效果不同,其中科技投入如果表现为清洁技术投入,则更有利于碳减...

System simulation and policy optimization of carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province

In order to investigate the influence of emission reduction policy on energy consumption and carbon emission, a system simulation model of energy consumption carbon emission in Shandong Province was constructed from the aspects of economy, energy, population and environment. On the basis of validating the model, the one-dimensional scenario and multi-dimensional comprehensive scenario simulations were carried out. The results showed that under the set scenario parameters, the adjustment of industrial structure, science and technology investment and energy structure could effectively promote carbon emission reduction, but the effects of emission reduction were different. If science and technology investment was represented by cleaner technology investment, it was more conducive to the realization of carbon emission reduction goals. The single factor adjustment had certain limitations in the emission reduction effect, while the multi-factor comprehensive simulation was close to achieve low carbon economic development targets in Shandong Province of the 13 th five year plan, with the second and third industry investment propertion in fixed assets investment of 49.43% and 46.94% respectively, the technology investment ratio of 2.70%, and the the energy consumption ratio of 74.87%:15.27%:9.86%.