鲁西北地区现状农业土地资源劳动力承载力模拟

传统农区农业劳动力的出路问题是中国目前面临的一个重要经济和社会问题,论文从农业土地资源劳动力承载力评价角度,对这一问题进行了探讨。提出了最小劳均耕地面积、农业土地资源劳动力承载力、规模种植压力指数和农业土地资源劳动力承载力指数的概念及模型,在建立模型分析农业土地资源劳动力承载能力的基础上估算劳动力的剩余。结果如下:在现实收入水平下,鲁西北地区最小劳均耕地面积为0.39hm₂,而实际劳均耕地面积为0.34hm₂;在现实收入水平下,鲁西北地区约有53.3×104个劳动力需要转移,剩余劳动力约占农林牧渔业总劳动力的14.9％;规模种植压力指数K=1.18>1,表明耕地处于正压力状态(承受压力)。说明目前鲁西北地区单位农林牧渔业劳动力所拥有的耕地规模较小,致使劳动生产率难以提高,农民收入增加缓慢,要大力提高农业劳动生产率,必须缩减从事农业的劳动力规模,寻求剩余劳动力转移的有效途径。

Estimation of the Labor Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in the Northwestern Shandong

Agricultural labor employment is an important social and economic problem in traditional farming regions.Problems related to surplus amount of labor and shortage of cultivated land are discussed by valuing the labor carrying capacity of land resources in this paper.The concepts of minimum per capita cultivated area required,index of growing area size pressure and labor carrying capacity of land resources are put forward,and the amounts of surplus labor are computed for various counties.Results indicate that the minimum per capita cultivated area required is 0.39 ha under practical income standard,while practical per capita cultivated area is 0.34 ha.About 53.3×104 agricultural labors should be transferred under practical income standard in northwestern Shandong Province,accounting for 14.9% of the total agricultural labors amount.The index of growing area size pressure K=1. 18 >1,which shows that cultivated land is under pressure.The result shows that operational size of farmland per capita is so small that it is difficult to improve production efficiency.Therefore,transfer of labor forces to non-agricultural sectors should be practiced to reduce the amount of agricultural labors.