1990年以来长江三角洲耕地资源变化及驱动因子研究

长江三角洲地区是中国经济发展最为快速的地区之一,虽耕地资源秉赋较好,但在经济快速发展的背景下,耕地问题显得十分严峻。以长江三角洲地区16个地级市为研究对象,利用1990~2012年相关数据,以市域为单元分析了耕地资源变化和实际利用强度的时空演变过程。结果表明:(1)1990~2012年,长三角地区的耕地总面积和人均耕地面积呈现周期性的下降趋势,以"快-慢-快-慢-慢"的循环模式逐步降低;(2)长三角地区耕地实际利用强度大体呈现"北强南弱"分布规律,在空间表现上,原来集中连片的 "高-高"、"低-低"格局正逐渐破碎化,开始出现斑点镶嵌式格局;(3)长三角地区的人口、二三产业比重和城市化水平均对耕地面积变化起到显著作用,其弹性系数分别为-0.216、-0.194和-0.203,而人均GDP与耕地面积则没有显著相关性。

ANALYSIS OF CROPLAND RESOURCE CHANGES AND DRIVING FACTORS IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA FROM 1990 TO 2012

The Yangtze Delta is not only the most developed region of China, also one of the most urbanized regions in China. Although the quality of cultivated land is better than that of other regions, cultivated land problem is very serious in the context of the high speed economic development. In this paper, we took 16 cities in the Yangtze Delta as the research objects. The quantitative changes of cultivated land resources, land use intensity and land use pressure of cultivated lands were analyzed by using the data from 1990 to 2012. The results showed that: (1) During the period from the 1990s to the 2012s, the total and per capita cultivated area presented cyclical declines, represented as a " fast-slow-fast-slow-slow" mode in the Yangtze Delta. (2) The land use intensity indexes of cultivated land presented "high in the North and low in the South" pattern. With the increase of cultivated land's use intensity indexes in Zhejiang Province later, the original "high-high" and "low-low" structure was broken and space spots began to appear on the mosaic pattern; (3) As for the Yangtze Delia, population, the proportion of tertiary industry and urbanization played a significant role in arable land changes, elasticity coefficients were -0.216, -0.194, and -0.203, respectively. GDP per capita had no significant correlation with arable land area.