基于GM(1,1)模型的安全管理目标值确定方法

在事故预防中,安全目标管理是非常重要的工作之一。在确定管理目标时,由于不可能全面、真实地掌握所有信息,同时决策的信息量小,没有确定的分布规律,因此借助灰色理论建立的年伤亡次数与时间之间数值模型,可以反映安全技术措施的持续改进,安全管理的加强,安全教育工作的贯彻以及人们对安全与日俱增的要求。实例表明,采用灰理论进行预测,有以下几个优点:优于传统的以概率论和模糊数学为基础的预测方法;预测结果精度高;可以从多角度考查对象,得出的数据更能体现企业安全状况的现实规律,反映企业现阶段的安全状况。同时为制定科学、合理而可行的安全管理目标提供依据,促使企业安全管理提高到一个新水平。

Determination of Safety Management Target Based on GM (1,1) Model

The safety management plays an important role in accident prevention . It is hard to have a good grasp of all information in the course of confirming the safety management goal, at the same time the amount of data is little and t here is no determinate distributing rule; it would be better to make use of gray theory to establish a numerical model of annual casualties. The model could ref lect the sustained improvement of technical safety measures, the enhancement of safety management, the implementation of safety training and the increasing safe ty demand of people. The exemplified example demonstrates that the method base o n GM (1,1) model is better than those prediction methods based on probability a nd fuzz math. Predicted results are good and incarnate all-round realistic rule of safety status. It could also furnish criteria for working-out a scientific, reasonable, feasible safety management goal to upgrade the safety management le vel of the enterprise.