煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,从微观上看,是在瓦斯积聚、引火源和氧气浓度3个条件同时具备的情况下发生的,从宏观上看,是在生产活动中存在人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致了微观3条件的同时具备。笔者介绍了突变理论的基本原理;在轨迹交叉事故致因理论基础上,分析了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的非线性特征;建立了事故演化的尖点突变模型。并指出:事故演化是一个流变-突变过程,其突变的程度反映了事故的严重度;人的不安全行为是事故发生的主要因素;物的因素决定事故的严重度;安全生产必须建立本质安全型矿井,避免人和物的运动轨迹越过分歧点集。

Catastrophe Model of Accident Evolvement of Gas Explosion in Coal Mines

From micro-perspective, coal mine gas explosion results from the simultaneous function of the three conditions of gas accumulation, ignition source and oxygen concentration, which result from the unsafe acts of man and the unsafe state of machines in production activity. Catastrophe theory was firstly introduced. Then, the nonlinear characteristics of accident evolvement of gas explosion were analyzed based on accident causation theory. A cusp model of accident evolvement was established. The results show that the accident evolvement is a rheology-mutation process; the degree of catastrophe reflects the severity of accident; the unsafe behavior is a major factor to the accident, and accident severity is determined by factors of machines. Safety production must be intrinsically safe, and avoid the movement trajectory of persons and vehicle crossing the bifurcation point set.