气候变化风险互联网络及系统性管理

气候变化风险能够在部门内与部门间进行传递和放大,形成多个复杂嵌套的风险互联网络,导致了系统性风险的产生。对气候变化风险互联网络的刻画能够帮助理解风险产生与演化的过程,削减气候变化对社会经济系统的直接物理风险,及碳达峰与碳中和建设过程中可能伴随的转型风险。本文识别了四类典型的气候变化风险互联网络,涵盖食品—能源—水系统、公共健康、宏观经济和金融市场、社会安全等四类部门或领域。针对每一类网络,分别总结了主要的气候变化风险传递路径及当前的研究进展和局限,并概述了开展系统性风险管理的建议。

Climate Change Risk Networks and Systematic Management

Climate change risks can be transmitted and amplified within and among sectors, forming multiple complex interconnected risk networks, leading to the emergence of systemic risks. The characterization of climate change risk networks can help understand the process of risk generation and evolution, reduce the direct physical risks of climate change to social and economic systems, and diminish the transition risks that may accompany the process of achieving carbon emission peaking and carbon neutrality. This paper identifies four typical climate change risk networks, covering four sectors or domains: food-energy-water systems, public health, macroeconomic and financial markets, and social security. For each type of network, the main climate change risk transmission routes, current research progress and limitations are summarized, and suggestions for systematic risk management are provided.