复杂地形下的福建省龙眼冻害风险评估

为减小福建省龙眼冻害损失,提高在复杂地形下的防御冻害风险能力,利用福建省67个气象站1950/1951-2009/2010年60年的极端最低气温资料,融合经纬度、海拔高度、坡度和坡向等地理因子,构建复杂地形条件下的龙眼冻害分布模型,基于GIS技术分别得出龙眼冻害危险性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力等因子空间分布状态,进而确定龙眼冻害的风险区划并进行风险评估和分析。结果表明:龙眼冻害无(轻)风险区域主要分布在莆田及其以南的沿海县(市);低风险区域分布比较广泛且零散,总面积较小;中风险区域面积大、分布广,主要是分布在海拔较高的丘陵山地;高风险区域主要在南平北部的武夷山脉、宁德西北部的鹫峰山脉、龙岩的玳瑁山脉及其它高海拔地区和部分较高海拔的北坡区域。

Risk Assessment of Longan Freezing Injury under Complicated Terrain in Fujian

In order to reduce loss of Longan freeze injury in Fujian Province,to improve defense freezing Injury risk ability under complex terrain.To use the extreme minimum temperature data of 67 weather station in Fujian from 1950/1951 to 2009/2010 year,integration of the geographical factors such as latitude,longitude,altitude,latitude,slope and aspect,construction model of Longan freezing injury distribution under the construction complex.Based on the GIS technology,the factors spatial distribution were obtained that included the risk of frost damage,exposure,capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.Contemporarily,the Risk zoning of Longan freezing injury were determined and for risk assessment and analysis.The results showed that the Longan frost-free(light) risk areas were mainly located in Putian and south of the coastal counties.The low-risk areas were distributed more widely scattered,and the total area was smaller.The middling risk areas were large,widely distributed and mainly were distributed in the higher elevations of the hills and mountains.