输气管道高后果区蒸气云爆炸超压预测方法探究*

为准确预测输气管道高后果区在发生蒸气云爆炸事故时的超压分布情况，对国内外运用较为广泛的蒸气云爆炸超压预测经验模型和数值模拟方法进行调研，并分别应用其对某输气管道全尺寸泄漏燃爆实验进行超压预测，结合实验数据和输气管道高后果区管理现状进行方法准确性和工程适用性分析。研究结果表明:基于等效TNT假设的Henrych模型、Mills模型和等效TNT当量数值模拟方法均不适合准确预测蒸气云爆炸超压，TNO多能法和混合气体数值模拟方法所预测的结果较为接近实验结果。TNO多能法使用简便且推广性强，但主观性较大，易高估或低估爆炸后果；混合气体数值模拟方法操作繁琐且推广性差，但分析结果精度较高。在对高后果区进行安全管控时，可结合TNO多能法与混合气体数值模拟方法同时对管道工况进行评估，确定TNO多能法的爆源强度等级，继而推广使用TNO多能法。该研究结果可在较大程度上保证评估的准确性并节约成本。

Study on overpressure prediction method of vapor cloud explosion in high-consequence area of gas pipeline

In order to accurately predict the overpressure distribution in the high-consequence area of the gas pipeline in case of vapor cloud explosion accident,the empirical models and numerical simulation methods for the overpressure prediction of vapor cloud explosion being widely used at home and abroad were investigated,and the overpressure prediction on the full-scale leakage explosion experiment of a gas pipeline was carried out by using them respectively.Combined with the experimental data and the management status of the high-consequence area of gas pipelines,the accuracy and engineering applicability of the methods were analyzed.The results showed that the Henrych model,Mills model,and equivalent TNT numerical simulation method based on equivalent TNT assumption were all not suitable for accurately predicting the overpressure of vapor cloud explosion.The prediction results of the TNO multi-energy method and mixed gas numerical simulation method were relatively close to the experimental results.The TNO multi-energy method was simple to use and had strong generalization,but it was subjective and easy to overestimate or underestimate the explosion consequence.The operation of the mixed gas method was complicated and the popularization was poor,but the analysis results were of high accuracy.In the safety control of high-consequence area,the TNO multi-energy method and the mixed gas numerical simulation method could be combined to evaluate the pipeline working conditions at the same time to determine the explosion source intensity grade of the TNO multi-energy method,and then the TNO multi-energy method could be popularized.The results can ensure the accuracy of the evaluation to a large extent and save costs.