混沌理论在水质预测中的应用初探

基于混沌理论、相空间重构思想和嵌入理论分析涟水流域溶解氧的时间序列,计算吸引子维数和最大的Lyapunov指数,研究河流水质系统的复杂性特征。结果表明,河流水质时间序列具有混沌特性,其外在表现为貌似随机的无规则特点;但系统本身内在的、固有的规律(表现在最大的Lyapunov指数),表明短期预测河流水质变化是可行的,并应用混沌相空间模线性回归模型进行了短期预测,其预测结果对涟水流域的水质管理和控制具有一定的参考价值。

A Preliminary Study on Application of Chaos Theory to Prediction of River Water Quality

On the basis of chaos theory, phase space reconstruction and embedding theory, time series of dissolved oxygen of the Lianshui River are analyzed and attractors dimension and Lyapunov exponent are calculated as well. The results show the chaotic property of the time series of river water quality in terms of DO. It appears that the seemingly irregular movement, but intrinsic orderliness of the system (characterized by maximal Lyapunov exponent) has indicated that short-term forecasting of the change of water quality is feasible. This paper describes the use of a chaos phase space mode linear regression method to forecast DO of the river. Some conclusions are instructive to environmental management in the river basin.