Implications of sea level rise for coastal dune habitat conservation in Wales,UK |
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Authors: | Samantha E Saye Kenneth Pye |
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Institution: | (1) Crowthorne Enterprise Centre, Kenneth Pye Associates Ltd, Old Wokingham Road, Crowthorne, Berkshire, RG45 6AW, UK |
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Abstract: | The potential impact of future sea level rise and climate change on 15 Welsh coastal dune systems has been investigated. Historical
Trend Analysis was undertaken using Ordnance Survey maps to quantify past shoreline change and to permit extrapolation of
past trends to predict possible future shoreline positions by 2080–2100. Predictions were also made using the Bruun Rule relationship
between sea level rise and shoreline response and an integrated method of assessment, Expert Geomorphological Assessment (EGA),
which provides a ‘best estimate’ of future coastline change, taking into account such factors as geological constraints, the
nature of past, present and future environmental forcing factors, and known coastal process–response relationships. The majority
of the 15 systems investigated experienced a net increase in dune area over the last 100–120 years. Only one (Whiteford Burrows)
experienced significant net area loss (>5 ha). EGA predictions suggest that several systems are likely to experience significant
net loss of dune habitat over the next century, whilst continued net gain is likely to occur for systems where sediment supply
rates remain high. Little net change is predicted in some systems. Considering the 15 dune systems together, it is considered
unlikely that net dune habitat loss will exceed net gain over the next 100 years provided that there are no major disruptions
to sediment supply and natural coastal processes. |
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Keywords: | Bruun rule Climate change Historical trend analysis SAC Expert geomorphological assessment Coastal dunes Sea level change |
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