Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;2. Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Voutes, Heraklion, Greece;1. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, China;2. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Anhui Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230061, China;1. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China;3. Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center, Guangzhou, China;1. Department of Chemistry, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA;2. School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA;3. Department of Chemistry, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA;4. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA;5. Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, 26504 Patras, Greece;6. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Palea Penteli, 15236, Greece |
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| Abstract: | In order to investigate the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) response to changes in biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions in the future atmosphere and how important will SOA be relative to the major anthropogenic aerosol component (sulfate), the global three-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM3 has been used. Emission estimates of biogenic VOC (BVOC) and anthropogenic gases and particles from the literature for the year 2100 have been adopted.According to our present-day model simulations, isoprene oxidation produces 4.6 Tg SOA yr?1, that is less than half of the 12.2 Tg SOA yr?1 formed by the oxidation of other BVOC. In the future, nitrate radicals and ozone become more important than nowadays, but remain minor oxidants for both isoprene and aromatics. SOA produced by isoprene is estimated to almost triple, whereas the production from other BVOC more than triples. The calculated future SOA burden change, from 0.8 Tg at present to 2.0 Tg in the future, is driven by changes in emissions, oxidant levels and pre-existing particles. The non-linearity in SOA formation and the involved chemical and physical feedbacks prohibit the quantitative attribution of the computed changes to the above-mentioned individual factors. In 2100, SOA burden is calculated to exceed that of sulfate, indicating that SOA might become more important than nowadays. These results critically depend on the biogenic emissions and thus are subject to the high uncertainty associated with these emissions estimated due to the insufficient knowledge on plant response to carbon dioxide changes. Nevertheless, they clearly indicate that the change in oxidants and primary aerosol caused by human activities can contribute as much as the change in BVOC emissions to the increase of the biogenic SOA production in the future atmosphere. |
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