Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030 |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;2. Center for Atmospheric Chemistry Study, Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China;3. The Center for Atmospheric Environmental Study, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;4. Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China;1. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, USA;2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, The University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA;3. Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;4. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA;5. Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA;6. Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA;7. Earth Science Division, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC 20546, USA;8. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA;9. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA;10. School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;11. Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA;12. Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;13. Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 2771, USA;1. School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, PR China;2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China;3. China Automobile Technology and Research Center, Tianjin 300162, PR China;4. School of Mechanical and Vehicular Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, PR China;5. Beijing Automobile Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100079, PR China;1. College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Research Institute of Environmental Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;2. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan City 71003, Taiwan;3. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India;2. Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India |
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| Abstract: | We have used a global version of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model to estimate anthropogenic emissions of the air pollution precursors sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), primary carbonaceous particles of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and methane (CH4). We developed two scenarios to constrain the possible range of future emissions. As a baseline, we investigated the future emission levels that would result from the implementation of the already adopted emission control legislation in each country, based on the current national expectations of economic development. Alternatively, we explored the lowest emission levels that could be achieved with the most advanced emission control technologies that are on the market today. This paper describes data sources and our assumptions on activity data, emission factors and the penetration of pollution control measures. We estimate that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, global anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx would slightly decrease between 2000 and 2030. For carbonaceous particles and CO, reductions between 20% and 35% are computed, while for CH4 an increase of about 50% is calculated. Full application of currently available emission control technologies, however, could achieve substantially lower emissions levels, with decreases up to 30% for CH4, 40% for CO and BC, and nearly 80% for SO2. |
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