| 组合优化的能源消费量预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 田峻山,俞奇勇,张帆. 组合优化的能源消费量预测模型[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2007, 23(10): 893-895,954 |
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| 作者姓名： | 田峻山 俞奇勇 张帆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 郑州大学,材料科学与工程学院,河南,郑州,450001;郑州大学,化学系,河南,郑州,450001
2. 郑州大学,材料科学与工程学院,河南,郑州,450001 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费量 灰色预测 人工神经网络 组合模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141（2007）10-0893-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-08-062007-09-12 |
Energy Consumption Prediction with Combined Model |
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| TIAN Jun-shan,YU Qi-yong,ZHANG Fan. Energy Consumption Prediction with Combined Model[J]. Resource Development & Market, 2007, 23(10): 893-895,954 |
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| Authors: | TIAN Jun-shan YU Qi-yong ZHANG Fan |
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| Affiliation: | Zhengzhou University 1.School of Materials Science and Engineering; 2. Chemistry Department, Zhengzhou 450001, China |
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| Abstract: | To diminish the error in the non- equidistant grey model for forecasting, considering the characteristic of the sequence, this model combined neural network and three models of grey theory with energy consumption data, and proposed the combination model of energy consumption, The result showed that the model had better fitting accuracy and availability, Tiffs model predicted the trend of the energy consumption, which provided evidence of scientific analysis of the energy construction. |
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| Keywords: | energy consumption grey prediction neural network combined model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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