面向2035的节能与新能源汽车全生命周期碳排放预测评价

发展节能与新能源汽车是降低交通运输行业碳排放的重要技术路径.为量化预测节能与新能源汽车的全生命周期碳排放，利用全生命周期评价方法，以汽车相关技术路线和政策为参考，选取燃油经济性、整车轻量化水平、电力结构碳排放因子和氢能碳排放因子为关键参数，构建传统燃油汽车(ICEV)、轻度混合动力汽车(MHEV)、重度混合动力汽车(HEV)、纯电动汽车(BEV)和燃料电池汽车(FCV)的数据清单并对其全生命周期碳排放进行量化预测评价，对电力结构碳排放因子和不同制氢方式碳排放因子进行了敏感性分析和讨论.结果发现，2022年ICEV、 MHEV、 HEV、 BEV和FCV的全生命周期碳排放量(以CO₂-eq计)分别为208.0、 195.5、 150.0、 113.5和205.0 g·km^-1.到2035年，BEV和FCV相比于ICEV具有较为显著的减碳效益，分别降低69.1%和49.3%.电力结构的碳排放因子对BEV的全生命周期碳排放的影响最显著.关于燃料电池汽车的不同制氢方式，短期应以工业副产氢提纯为主供应FCV氢能需求，长期以可再生能源电解水制氢和化石能源...

Life Cycle Prediction Assessment of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles for 2035

The development of energy saving and new energy vehicles is an important technology path to reduce carbon emissions for the transportation industry. To quantitatively predict the life cycle carbon emissions of energy saving and new energy vehicles, this study used the life cycle assessment method and selected the fuel economy level, lightweight level, carbon emission factor of electricity structure, and carbon emission factor of hydrogen production as key performance parameters to establish inventories of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), mild hybrid electrical vehicles (MHEV), heavy hybrid electrical vehicles (HEV), battery electrical vehicles (BEV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) based on automotive-related policy and technical routes. The sensitivity of carbon emission factors of electricity structure and different hydrogen production methods were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that the current life cycle carbon emissions (CO₂ equivalent) of ICEV, MHEV, HEV, BEV, and FCV were 207.8, 195.2, 149.9, 113.3, and 204.7 g·km^-1, respectively. By 2035, BEV and FCV were predicted to have a significant reduction of 69.1% and 49.3%, respectively, compared with ICEV. The carbon emission factor of electricity structure had the most significant influence on BEV life cycle carbon emissions. In terms of different hydrogen production methods of FCV, hydrogen demand should be mainly supplied by industrial hydrogen by-product purification in the short-term future, whereas hydrogen energy production by water electrolysis and hydrogen production from fossil energy combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology should be used to meet the hydrogen demand of FCV in the long-term future, so as to achieve a significant improvement in the life cycle carbon reduction benefits of FCV.