石化装置泄漏事故点火源及点火概率的确定

简要综述石化企业常见点火源的分类及点火概率的确定方法。首先介绍点火源的常见分类方式,通过事件树展示泄漏发生后立即点火和延迟点火造成的不同事故后果;其次总结目前国内外确定点火概率的两种方法,即基于事故统计的点火概率以及基于点火源分类和统计的方法。在基于事故统计的点火概率中,给出国外在易燃液体运输、井喷、储罐破裂、管道运输等行业发生泄漏事故后的点火概率。在基于点火源分类及统计的点火概率计算中,给出TNO、HSE推荐的点火概率计算方法。同时对国内的研究情况进行了总结,给出已发表的点火概率计算方法。最后简要介绍目前国内关于点火过程的试验研究。针对国内工厂实际情况确定不同点火源的点火概率的工作亟待开展。

Determination of Ignition Source and Ignition Probability of Leaking Accidents in Petrochemical Processes

The classification of ignition sources and calculation of ignition probability was briefly summarized in this paper. Firstly, the classifications of ignition source were introduced, and the different results of immediate ignition and delayed ignition were shown using event tree method. Secondly, two approaches for the determination of ignition probability were introduced, i.e. ignition probability calculated with accident statistics and ignition probability based on the classification of ignition sources. The accident statistics of different processes were briefly summarized, including flammable material transportation, blowout, storage tank cracking, and long pipeline transportation. The ignition probabilities of different kinds of ignition sources given by TNO and HSE were also introduced. It's believed that the research on the ignition probabilities of different ignition sources in domestic petrochemical plants is very important.