广东省交通碳排放核算及影响因素分析

交通领域是二氧化碳排放的重要领域，为研究广东省的交通碳排放及影响因素，利用IPCC（联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会）在温室气体清单指南中提供的方法估算了广东交通碳排放量，并应用LMDI分解法（对数平均指数法）对广东交通碳排放进行因素分解分析.结果表明:① 2001-2010年广东交通碳排放量从1 950.98×104 t增至6 068.41×104 t，其中交通运输业碳排放是广东交通碳排放的主体，私人交通碳排放已成为广东交通碳排放不可忽视的组成部分.② 交通运输业中的公路碳排放量占比最大，占56%~64%；铁路的碳排放量占比最小，占0.6%~1.6%；水运具有较大的节能优势；民航单位周转量碳排放量最高.③ 交通运输业发展水平、运输结构、私人汽车数量规模对广东交通碳排放增加的贡献率分别为68.79%、36.14%、18.66%，是拉动广东交通碳排放增长的主要因素；运输强度与能源强度的贡献率分别为-18.1%、-6.46%，是抑制交通碳排放增长的因素.广东可以通过采取优化交通运输结构、使用替代清洁能源等措施减少交通碳排放. 

Estimation of CO2 Emissions from the Transport Sector in Guangdong Province, China and Analysis of Factors Affecting Emissions

Abstract: The transport sector is a major contributor of CO₂ emissions. The emissions from the transport sector in Guangdong province were estimated in accordance with the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was used to measure the influence of commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift, private vehicle number, energy consumption per private vehicle, carbon emission coefficient, transport intensity and energy intensity on the CO₂ emissions of the Guangdong transport sector. The results showed that:(1) CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in Guangdong province increased from 19.51 million tons in 2001 to 60.68 million tons in 2010. The commercial transport sector was the major contributor of emissions, and private vehicle CO₂ emissions were indispensable. (2) CO₂ emissions from highways presented the largest share at 56%-64%, whereas the smallest share was from railways, which accounted for only 0.6%-1.6% of commercial transport sector CO₂ emissions. Aviation presented the highest CO₂ emissions per unit turnover, while waterways showed the lowest. (3) Commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift and private vehicle number positively affected the growth of emissions, with contributions of 68.79%, 36.13% and 18.66% respectively. By contrast, transport and energy intensities contributed negatively, with -18.1% and -6.46%, respectively. Therefore, the development of commercial transport industry, deterioration of transport modes and growing demand for private vehicles were responsible for the increasing CO₂ emissions of the transport sector, whereas transport and energy efficiencies limited the increase in emissions. Transport sector CO₂ emissions can be reduced through transport mode improvement and clean energy utilization.