京津冀制造业转移与环境影响实证研究

为评价京津冀产业转移的时空格局变化及其对区域环境产生的影响，建立区际产业转移测度模型和环境影响评估模型，实证分析2003—2014年京津冀制造业的转移与环境污染影响.产业转移测度模型借鉴偏离-份额法和增量分解思想，可用于分析区际产业转移的趋势和规模；环境影响评估模型采用纳入产业转移、经济发展和环境管制水平等因素的计量经济模型，利用面板数据和固定效应估计方法，可用于分析区际产业转移带来的区域环境污染格局变化.实证研究结果表明:京津冀地区1%规模的资本密集型制造业发生转移，会使转入地（转出地）的工业SO₂和工业烟（粉）尘排放量分别增长（减少）3.4%和2.6%.“十一五”以来京津冀地区间的制造业转移已经颇具规模，然而京津冀制造业的空间重构已经对区域环境污染格局产生了影响，并且产生明显不利影响的主要是资本密集型制造业的转移，而技术密集型制造业转移的环境积极效应尚不明显，京津冀环境污染在跨过EKC（环境库兹涅茨曲线）拐点后，环境污染与经济增长的反向关系可能并不能持续，更有效的环境规制或者更清洁的生产技术可以明显改善当地的环境状况. 

Empirical Study on Manufacturing Transfer and Environmental Impacts in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

In order to assess the spatial and temporal pattern of industrial relocation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ('Jing-Jin-Ji') Region and its influence on the regional environment, we built a model measuring the interregional industrial relocation and a model estimating the environmental impact. The models enabled an empirical analysis of the manufacturing transfer in the region and its influence on regional pollution emissions from 2003 to 2014. The industrial transfer measure model leveraged the shift-share method and incremental decomposition considerations, and could be adopted to analyze the interregional industrial transfer trend and scale. The environmental impact assessment model used an econometric model incorporating factors such as industrial shift, economic growth and environmental regulation with panel data and the fixed effect estimation method, and could be adopted to analyze the change of regional environmental pollution brought by interregional industrial relocation. The empirical results showed that one percentage of capital-intensive manufacturing relocation in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region would increase (or reduce) industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial smoke dust emissions by 3.4% and 2.6% respectively for the undertake (or exit). A large number of manufacturing industries shifted in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region since the 11th Five-Year Plan. The relocation of manufacturing, however, most affected the regional environment pollution pattern. It was the capital-intensive industries transfer that highly accounted for the negative impacts on the environment, while the positive effects on the environment brought by technology-intensive industries were not yet clearly observed. After the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) turning point, the inverse relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth might not be sustainable. More stringent environmental regulations or cleaner production technology could evidently improve the local environment.