W_q方法及σ_H方法在华东地区中强震预报中的应用

应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标

The application of Wq and σH methods to the prediction of moderate earthquakes in the East China region

Time-space scanning of the two characteristic parameters describing the seismic quiescence ( W q and σ H) has been made using the earthquakes of M L≥ 2.3 in East China region since 1992. The results have shown that anomalies of quiescence in W q lasting for one year or a little more appeared prior to most earthquakes of M >5 in the East China region. The epicenters are generally located in the margin or interior of the anomalous area of quiescence. A time-scanning of σ H in the spacial anomalous area of W q can also show anomalies of quiescence lasting for about one year in some regions. This result probably means that the seismic quiescence is also an index for medium-term and short-term prediction of moderate earthquakes.