我国燃油税改革效应模拟分析

经历了十几年的讨论,燃油税改革方案终于在2009年出台并实施,改革后燃油税究竟会对我国宏观经济及各部门产生怎样的影响,倍受关注.基于此背景,采用环境CGE模型对改革前后的两种不同燃油税税率进行了量化分析,总体研究得出：从长期发展来看,燃油税改革有利于我国经济结构调整,减少能源消耗和降低碳排放;短期内会增加企业生产成本,抑制宏观经济增长,其中交通运输业和石油加工业受到的冲击最大,应引起有关部门重视.

Simulation Analysis of Chinese Fuel Tax Reform Effect

Through ten years of discussion, the fuel tax reform program was issued and implemented in 2009, after the reform what effect would have on our country＇s macro economy and departments was still attracted a lot of attention. Based on this background, this paper used the environmental CGE model to quantitatively analyze the two different fuel tax rate before and after the reform, the conclusion was that ： From the long - term devel- opment perspective, the fuel tax reform was conducive to Chinese economic structural adjustment, energy consumption reduction and carbon emissions reduction, but in the short term it would increase the production cost of the enterprise, restrain macro economic growth, in which the transportation industry and oil processing industry were taken the biggest impact, relevant departments should pay close attention to.