改进的灰色马尔科夫模型在飞行事故率预测中的应用

基于灰色理论和马尔科夫理论,建立传统的灰色预测模型和灰色马尔科夫预测模型;对传统灰色预测模型的背景值和初值的构造存在一定的误差进行改进,并用改进后的新模型对飞行事故率预测的结果与传统的灰色马尔科夫模型进行对比;仿真结果表明:改进后的灰色马尔科夫模型预测精度有了进一步的提高并验证了算法的有效性。

Improved Grey Markov Model and Its Application in Prediction of Flight Accident Rate

Based on grey modeling theory and Markov theory,traditional grey prediction model and grey Markov model are set up. Considering that there are some errors in the calculation of background value and original value of traditional grey Markov model,an improvement is conducted on the traditional model. Then,a comparison is made on the results of flight accident rate that are respectively predicated by the traditional model and the improved one. Simulation results show that the improved model has a higher precision than the traditional one in the prediction of flight accident rate. Finally,the algorithms of the improved model are verified.