农村散煤替代对PM2.5污染影响及健康效益评估——以河南省为例

基于2016年河南省农村污染物排放清单，采用县级优化模型，设置了基准和散煤治理2种情景，评估了2025年1月份河南省农村散煤替代的减排潜力，利用空气质量模型（WRF-CMAQ）模拟其对PM_2.5污染改善的贡献，并采取泊松回归模型分析了相应的居民健康效益.结果表明，由于围护结构改造的成本较低及保温效果显著，其与采暖设备的组合技术在河南省农村家庭是最适合推广的采暖技术.在散煤治理情景下，2025年1月河南省农村居民燃烧源的SO₂，NO_x，CO，PM₁₀，PM_2.5，VOCs，NH₃排放量与基准情景相比分别下降了98.3%，82.6%，99.8%，99.2%，98.8%，98.2%和99.4%.散煤治理情景下河南省2025年1月PM_2.5浓度模拟结果与基准情景相比下降4.1μg/m³，可以避免2220人过早死亡，带来23.5亿元经济效益.

Evaluation for impact on PM2.5 pollution and healthy benefits of rural scattered coal replacement-a case study of Henan Province

The emission reduction by scattered coal replacement in the January of 2025 was predicted with a noble county-level optimization model, which was based on the air pollutant emissions inventory of rural coal combustion of Henan in 2016. Two scenarios were set to evaluate the emission reduction potentials of rural scattered coal replacement, including Business As Usual (BAU) and Scattered Coal Treatment (SCT) scenarios. The resulting air quality improvement and healthy benefits to public caused by rural scattered coal replacement were quantified by air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) and the Poisson regression model. Combination of the envelope structure renovation and heating equipment was the most suitable heating technology for rural households in Henan Province. In comparison to the BAU scenario, the emission intensity of SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, VOCs and NH₃ in January 2025 from rural residential combustion in Henan Province were decreased by 98.3%, 82.6%, 99.8%, 99.2%, and 99.2% in the SCT scenario. Compared with BAU scenario, monthly average PM_2.5 concentration in January 2025 of the SCT scenario could be reduced for 4.1μg/m³, which could prevent totally 220 premature deaths and economic loss of 2.35 billion RMB.