5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究

基于目前5G技术的发展情况，利用holt指数平滑法和动态分析法预测了未来20年5G基站产生的直接碳排放量.根据预测模型，5G基站建设会在2038年左右达到饱和状态，数量约为1434万个.考虑到5G技术的发展推动其他产业发展可能导致的碳排放量变化，利用投入产出法和灰度时间预测法等方法评估了5G技术引起的各行业间接碳排放量.结果显示，5G基站处于低负载（30%负载）情况下，能在2038年碳排放达峰时年产生142.61Mt的直接碳排放；而如果满负荷运行，则能在2038年碳排放达峰时产生196.26Mt的直接碳排放，基于中国两种不同碳排放达峰情景，综合分析了5G技术导致的直接和间接碳排放对中国碳排放达峰时间和碳排放峰值的影响，最后对预测结果进行了稳健性检验.研究发现，实际GDP情况情景下5G技术对于社会各行业的碳排放影响在2030年达到峰值，约为255.96Mt.并且，2030年前5G技术发展对社会总体碳排放增量以间接碳排放为主，2030年后对社会碳排放增量以直接碳排放为主；综合考虑下5G技术的发展会导致中国碳排放达峰时间推后至少2年，相应的碳排放峰值至少提高了383.96Mt.若中国政府要削减5G导致的额外碳排放，完成二氧化碳总量控制，需要降低基站能耗水平，控制基站数量，避免重复建设导致5G基站低负荷运行.

Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission

Concerning the current situation of 5G technology development, this paper predicts direct carbon emissions generated by 5G base stations in the next 20 years, with Holt index smoothing method and dynamic analysis. The predictive model showed that the construction of 5G base stations might be saturated around 2038, with the number of 14.34 million. Considering the development of 5G technology and its promotion of other industries that may affect the carbon emissions, the input-output method and grayscale time prediction method were also used to evaluate the indirect carbon emissions. The results show that, if 5G station work in low-load (lower than 30%), direct carbon emission will be 142.61 Mt per year in 2038 when carbon emission peak; or else it would be 196.26 Mt in a full-load situation. Based on two different peak-reaching scenarios of carbon emissions in China, the impacts of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by 5G technology on peak-reaching time and peak values were comprehensively analyzed. Last, the robustness test was conducted on the predicted results. The results revealed that the impact of 5G technology on carbon emissions of industries will reach its peak in 2030 under the actual GDP scenario, with the value of 255.96 Mt, and the increase of overall carbon emissions caused by 5G technology before 2030 was dominated by indirect carbon emission, while the increase of social carbon emission after 2030 was dominated by direct carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the development of 5G technology, the peak time of China's carbon emission will be delayed by at least 2 years, and the corresponding peak carbon emission would be increased by at least 383.96 Mt. It also implied that the Chinese government had to reduce the energy consumption level of base stations, control the number of base stations and avoid the low-load operation caused by repeated construction of 5G base stations, to reduce the additional carbon emissions caused by 5G and control the total amount of carbon dioxide.