《大气污染防治行动计划》实施环境效果模拟

本研究利用2010年污染源普查数据和MEIC排放清单建立全国大气污染物高时空分辨率排放清单,在此基础上利用2012年环境统计数据对其进行修订建立2012年全国大气污染物高时空分辨率排放清单;结合《大气污染防治行动计划》(以下简称《计划》)研究工作,测算了《计划》实施后在污染源综合治理、落后产能淘汰、能源结构调整方面对SO2、NOx、颗粒物、VOCs的减排量,同时对污染物新增量进行了预测,建立了《计划》实施后全国大气污染物高时空分辨率排放清单;利用CMAQ空气质量模型模拟分析了《计划》实施的空气质量改善效果。结果表明:《计划》实施后,将可以减少641万吨SO2、859万吨NOx、547万吨颗粒物(不含扬尘污染控制)、627万吨VOCs,全国、京津冀、长三角及珠三角区域PM2.5年均浓度将分别比2012年下降22.08%、33.99%、23.98%、24.04%。如果《计划》要求全部落实,可以实现空气质量改善目标。

Environmental Effect Simulation of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan

This study established the national high spatial and temporal resolution emission inventory based on the national pollution source census data of 2010 and the 2012 Multi-resolution emission inventory for China, and revised the emission inventory with the environmental statistic data of 2012.Combined with the research of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the emission reduction of SO₂, NO_x, PM, VOCs by controlling pollution source, eliminating backward productivity and adjusting energy structure were calculated while the future increment of pollutants emission were predicted, then the national high spatial and temporal resolution emission inventory was established according to the reduction.Environmental effect simulation was conducted by applying the CAMQ air quality model, the results indicated that if the action plan was implement completely the emission reduction of SO₂, NO_x,PM, VOCs is 641×10⁴t, 859×10⁴t, 547×10⁴t, 627×10⁴t, the annual average PM_2.5concentration of China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeiregion, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta will decline 22.08%, 33.99%, 23.98%, 24.04% respectively as compared to 2012, the goal of air quality improvement can be acquired.