模糊综合评判法在冰湖溃决危险度划分中的应用——以西藏自治区洛扎县为例

选择海拔高度、冰湖面积、距现代冰川冰舌前端距离、终碛堤坝宽度、背水坡坡度、主沟床纵比降、主沟床松散固体物质丰富程度、主沟沿程及下游有无居民点及公共设施八个因素作为冰湖溃决危险度划分的主要因素,应用模糊层次分析法确定了各因素的权重,并运用模糊关系理论建立了冰湖溃决危险度的评价方法,将其应用于西藏自治区洛扎县境内14个冰湖,结果与实际情况基本一致,表明该方法是可行的。

APPLICATION OF FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD IN RISK DEGREE DETERMINATION FOR ICE-LAKE OUTBURST --AN EXAMPLE OF LUOZHA COUNTY IN TIBET

The aim of this paper is using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) to determine the risk degree of ice-lake outburst Based on analyzing the conditions which induced ice-lake to breach, 8 major factors, such as altitude, ice-lake area, distance from modern glacier tongue, dyke width, grade of downstream slope, longitudinal river slope, abundance of unconsoli-dated solid matter and residents and facilities, are selected as the factors to determine the risk degree of ice-lake outburst. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is used to determine the weight of above factors. And then, the membership function is used to calculate the risk degree of outburst for 14 ice-lakes in Luozha county in Tibet It shows that the result is close to the fact and the method is feasible.