从油气资源状况论我国未来能源发展战略

我国油气可采资源量分别为140×10⁸t和9.3×10¹²m³,但与世界平均水平相比,我国油气资源却相对贫乏。目前,我国石油资源勘探程度较高,储量、产量增长的潜力有限,石油在未来一次能源消费中的比例只能略有上升,保持在25%～26%;而天然气资源勘探程度却很低,正处在高速发展阶段。天然气在未来一次能源消费中的比例有望较快增长,预计从2000年的2.5%上升到2015年的9.4%;与之对应,煤炭消费比例会有所下降,但不会改变煤炭在一次能源消费中的首要地位。为此,根据我国油气资源、能源消费和能源需求变化等特点,对未来能源发展战略提出5条建议:节能降耗,提高能源利用率,实施可持续发展战略;大力发展洁净煤技术;依靠科技进步,加大油气勘探开发力度,优化能源结构;实施“走出去”战略,积极参与国际油气市场;积极开发新能源,实现能源供应多元化。

Discussion on future energy development strategy in China judged by oil & gas resources status

It is estimated that the recovery resources of oil&;gas are about 14billion tons and9.3trillion cubic meters respectively in China.But comparing with the world average,it is rela-tively poor in oil&;gas resources in China.At present,the exploration maturity in oil resources is rather high,the increasing potential of oil reserves and output is limited in the future,the pro-portion of oil in the primary energy consumption can only increase slightly,keeping at25%～26%.But the maturity in gas resources exploration is quite low,it is in the high speed develop-ment stage,the proportion of gas in the primary energy consumption is expected to increase rather rapidly,hopefully from 2.5%in2000to9.4%in2015.Correspondingly,the proportion of coal in the energy mixture is to reduce a bit,but it still maintains its foremost status in the pri-mary energy consumption.Therefore,according to the features of oil&;gas resources,energy consumption and energy requirement in China,the following six suggestions concerning energy development strategy are put forward:to economize energy and to reduce consumption,enhance efficiency of energy utilization,carry out sustainable development strategy;to develop vigorously the technology of clean coal;to make great effort in oil&;gas exploration and production relying on science and technology progress,so as to optimize energy structure;to implement the"going abroad"strategy and to participate actively in the international oil&;gas resources market;and to exploit new kind energy vigorously,and to realize diversification of energy supply.