江苏省环境库兹涅茨特征分析

选取江苏省 1 988— 2 0 0 2年经济与环境数据 ,建立了单位GDP污染排放量模型和人均GDP污染排放量模型 ,分析各类典型环境指标与GDP增长的关系。研究发现 ,江苏省的单位GDP污染排放量总体呈现下降趋势 ,表明技术进步和产业结构的调整已产生了明显的环境效益 ;同时发现经济发展与环境污染水平的关系总体上符合库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC)特征。由此得出结论 :江苏省目前仍处于工业发展期 ,环境污染物排放量EKC的转折点尚未达到 ,因此 ,江苏环境污染控制的投入有必要保持较高的水平。

EKC characteristics in Jiangsu Province

With the 1988-2002 economic and environmental data in Jiangsu Province as basis,the model of the industrial waste discharge per unit GDP and industrial waste discharge per capita GDP bave been established,and the relationship between typical environmental indexes and increase of GDP was analyzed.The results show that the industrial waste discharge per unit GDP displays a general downward trend,which indicates that the technological progress and readjustment of industrial structure have yielded significant environmental benefit;meanwhile on the whole the relationship of economic development and environmental pollution conforms to the characteristics of EKC.So the conclusion can be drawn that Jiangsu Province is still at the stage of industrial development,an EKC turning point of the environmental waste discharge has not yet reached.It is,therefore,necessary for Jiangsu to keep a high level of financial input into the control of environmental pollution.