喀什地区环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

用1991～2005年间喀什地区的环境经济数据,通过对人均GDP数据与大气污染物、水污染和固体废弃物等数据进行回归拟合,构建了喀什地区环境库兹涅茨曲线,分析了环境指数与人均GDP之间的关系。结果表明:喀什地区降尘和总悬浮颗粒物与人均GDP之间的相关性较高,而二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量与人均GDP的相关系数较低。从库兹涅茨曲线的变化趋势来看,大气中的污染物与人均GDP之间的EKC曲线的变化类型可分为3种;随着人均GDP的增加,人均GDP与水污染指数的拟合曲线呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,其转折点出现在2001年;从相关系数来看,工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP呈弱的正相关关系;从近似函数关系曲线的变化趋势来看,工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP之间呈现出典型的"U"型曲线。

Characteristics Analysis on EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curves) in Kashi Area

Using the environmental economic data of 1991～2005 in Kashi,we constructed the EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curves) through the regression analysis between the GDP data and atmospheric pollutants,water pollution and solid wastes in Kashi.The relationship between GDP and environment index was analyzed.The results showed that:the correlation between dustfall、 total suspended particles and GDP per capita was higher,while the correlation coefficient between the sulfur dioxide、nitrogen oxides emissions and GDP per capita was lower.From the change trend,the EKC of the atmospheric pollutants and GDP per capita could be divided into three types;Along with the increase of the GDP,the fitting curves of GDP per capita and water pollution index increased after decreased,the turning point was in 2001;From the correlation coefficient,industrial solid wastes production and GDP per capita was weakly positive correlation.From change trend of approximate function relation curve,industrial solid wastes production and GDP per capita showed typical "U"type curve.