Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains |
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| Authors: | Xianzeng Niu William Easterling Cynthia J Hays Allyson Jacobs Linda Mearns |
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| Institution: | 1. Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, USA;2. College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, Penn State University, USA;3. School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, USA;4. Department of Geography, Penn State University, USA;5. National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA;1. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru 502 324, Andhra Pradesh, India;2. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Bamako BP 320, Mali;3. Agronomy Department, University of Florida, IFAS, Gainesville, FL 32611-0500, USA;4. Agronomy Department, 2004 Throckmorton Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506-5501, USA;1. Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, 1421 Bldg. #142, College Park, MD 20742, United States;2. Ecosystem Engineering Design Lab, Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, 1421 Bldg. #142, College Park, MD 20742, United States;1. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;2. Department of Geological Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA;1. UMR 1230 SYSTEM, INRA Montpellier 2, Place Viala, 34060 Montpellier cedex 1, France;2. ACTA, RMT modélisation, UMR 1248 AGIR, INRA, 24 Chemin de Borde Rouge—Auzeville, 31326 Castanet Tolosan cedex, France;3. UMR 1248 AGIR, INRA Toulouse, INRA, 24 Chemin de Borde Rouge—Auzeville, 31326 Castanet Tolosan cedex, France;1. Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3 (former Walter-Flex-Strasse 3), D-53113 Bonn, Germany;2. West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), 06 BP 9507 Ouaga 06, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso;3. International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI), West Africa Program, P.O. Box 1576 Yamoussoukro, Côte d’Ivoire;4. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Karlrobert-Kreiten-Str. 13, D-53115 Bonn, Germany;1. Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan;2. Department of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy;3. Institute of Agricultural Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan;4. Punjab Bio-energy Institute (PBI), University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan;5. College of Agriculture, Bahadur Campus, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan |
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| Abstract: | Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions. |
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