An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future |
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Authors: | Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Konstantinos V Varotsos Kostas Tziotziou Achilleas Plitharas |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & V. Pavlou, 152 36 Palaia Pendeli, Athens, Greece;(2) Energy Environment Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus;(3) World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Hellas, Filellinon 26, 10558 Athens, Greece |
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Abstract: | Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation
patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources
for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various
negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by
changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021–2050) are analysed using
a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications
which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions
of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry
days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas
an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum
temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires
is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling
of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate
change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist
areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially
at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable
for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of
confidence than those associated with precipitation. |
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