基于景气指数法的中国环境承载力预警

针对目前环境承载力预警相关研究不足的问题，采用景气指数法构建针对我国环境承载力的预警方法体系，并对我国2001年~2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究：在此基础上对我国31个省（直辖市/自治区）（不含港澳台地区）2004~2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究.结果表明：本研究建立的预警系统结果与真实社会经济发展趋势和环境承载情况吻合良好，预警效果显著，方法具有一定的可行性；预警结果显示：我国各地区环境承载力状态有所差异，全国整体环境承载力承载状态趋好，但未来依然要警惕可能面临环境承载力的超载情况，采取相应措施，减少经济发展对环境造成的压力，提高环境自身承载能力.

Chinese early warning of environmental carrying capacity based on the climate index method

The early warning system of environmental carrying capacity was built on the basis of the climate index method to address the lack of relative research, and evaluated its reliability to provide early warning about the environmental carrying capacity of China in 2001~2014. In addition, on this basis, a research on the environmental carrying capacity warnings of 31provinces (autonomous regions/municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) in China in 2001~2014 was conducted. The results of the early warning system established here showed good agreement with the actual social and economic development trends and environmental carrying conditions. From the satisfactory evaluation outcomes, we confirmed its feasibility for providing early warning on the environmental carrying capacity. Moreover, the early warning results indicated that the environmental carrying capacity varied in different regions, but the overall Chinese environmental carrying conditions improved year-on-year. Nonetheless, corresponding measures would be needed for handling the possibility of overloading the environmental carrying capacity in future, to reduce the environmental pressure of economic development and enhance the environmental carrying capacity in China.