1995~2015年中国风蚀扬尘TSP、PM10和PM2.5排放清单及未来趋势预测

通过收集1995~2015年中国大陆31个省级行政区风速、降水量和气温地面站数据,结合各省、市自治区的土地利用分布及每种土地利用类型对应的土质类型,基于环保部推荐的起尘模型建立了1995~2015年中国风蚀扬尘颗粒物（TSP、PM₁₀和PM_2.5）排放清单.研究表明,在本研究的时间序列中,中国土壤风蚀扬尘颗粒物排放量呈现波动的趋势,2015年全国风蚀扬尘颗粒物TSP、PM₁₀和PM_2.5的年排放量分别约为2.27×10⁷、6.77×10⁶和1.17×10⁶t.排放量的空间分布总体上呈现"北强南弱",并且以"黑河-腾冲"一线为界呈现"西强东弱"的排放格局,排放强度最大的地区出现在内蒙古西部和新疆大部.基于IPCC对于未来气候变化的预测情景,估计了未来风蚀扬尘颗粒物的排放变化趋势,在降水和气温共同作用下,不考虑风速变化,2100年的排放量相对2005年的变化幅度在-8.5%~7.7%之间,降水量增多会抑制风蚀扬尘颗粒物排放,温度升高则会使得地表更容易产生风蚀扬尘颗粒物.

An inventory of atmospheric wind erosion dust emissions of China, 1995~2015

This study aimed to develop an integrated inventory of the atmospheric emissions of total suspended particulate (TSP), inhalable particles (PM₁₀) and fine particles (PM_2.5) from wind erosion at fine resolution in China during the period 1995~2015 and project the trend of emissions from now until 2100. A bottom-up method was utilized to compile this comprehensive inventory with updated historical meteorological data (e.g., wind speed, precipitation and temperature), land use categories and soil contents at provincial level. The national total emissions of TSP, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from wind erosion were estimated as 2.27×10⁷t, 6.77×10⁶t and 1.17×10⁶t, respectively. Higher emissions were observed in Northern or Eastern China compared with Southern and Western China. Highest emission intensity was found in Western Inner Mongolia and most of Xinjiang Province. Furthermore, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of future climate change, emission trends of TSP, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from wind-erosion process in the future was estimated. Under the combined effects of precipitation and temperature changes, wind erosion dust emissions in 2100 is between -8.5 % ~ 7.7 % compared to 2005. The increase of precipitation will inhibit the emissions of wind-erosion dust while the rapid increase of ambient temperature can make the land surface more prone to produce particles.